The Secrets Behind Auction Estimates: Why One Picasso Portrait of His Young Muse Sold for Over Three Times More Than Another

On 9 November 2023, the global art market turned its eyes to New York as both Christie’s and Sotheby’s presented major evening sales of 20th-century art. In a rare and fascinating twist, both auction houses featured portraits by Pablo Picasso of the same woman, painted just two years apart. The woman? Marie-Thérèse Walter—Picasso’s young, golden-haired muse and lover.

While the similarities between the two works are striking, the prices realized were anything but.

The Numbers

The market gap—over three times in value—raises a tantalizing question: what drives such stark differences in valuation when the artist, subject, and historical context appear nearly identical?

1. Timing Within Picasso’s Career

The year 1932—when Femme à la montre was painted—is widely regarded as a golden year for Picasso. It was a moment of creative explosion and emotional intensity, particularly around his secret affair with Marie-Thérèse. Many of his most celebrated depictions of her date from this period.

In contrast, 1934, the year of Femme endormie, marked a darker, more conflicted chapter. Europe was sliding toward fascism, Spain teetered on the edge of civil war, and the Great Depression continued to ripple across borders. Picasso’s personal life was equally fraught. His marriage to Olga Khokhlova, a Russian ballerina from Diaghilev’s legendary Ballets Russes, had long since broken down. Though estranged, Olga refused to grant Picasso a divorce—unless he agreed to give her half of his paintings, a condition he adamantly rejected. The resulting stalemate added emotional weight to his private life and artistic output.

2. The Power of Size

Sometimes, the market values the canvas as much as the content. Femme à la montre is significantly larger than Femme endormie, which can contribute to higher estimates and final prices. Larger works, especially portraits of key muses, are more desirable to collectors for display and perceived impact.

3. Provenance and Prestige

While both paintings come with strong ownership histories, Femme à la montre carries the added cachet of having belonged to Emily Fisher Landau, one of America’s most respected 20th-century collectors and patrons of modern art. Her name, associated with sophistication and discerning taste, undoubtedly added value.

4. Symbolism: The Watch as a Vanitas Device

Beyond formal and historical distinctions, Femme à la montre holds symbolic weight that resonates on a deeper level.

The presence of the wristwatch is no accident. According to Picasso’s biographer John Richardson, “Picasso must have given Olga a wristwatch, just as, years later, he would give one to Marie-Thérèse Walter.” Scholar Lydia Gasman suggests the watch held emotional and superstitious significance, particularly for Marie-Thérèse. As Gasman observed, “The ominousness of wristwatches in Picasso’s imagery has to do with ‘time corroding love.’”

A nod to changing fashion norms—the wristwatch was then still seen as a masculine accessory—the watch also serves as a personal token, a gift from the artist to the sitter. In this sense, the object becomes a stand-in for Picasso himself, cementing the emotional and temporal bond between artist and muse.

Its first appearance in his work dates back to the 1917 Portrait d’Olga. By the time of Femme à la montre, the watch has reemerged—but now, it’s Marie-Thérèse who wears it. She has not only borrowed the watch but, metaphorically, borrowed Picasso’s affections. Its placement, resting prominently in her lap, draws the eye—and the subconscious—into this layered narrative.

5. Rarity and Psychological Depth

In July 1934, Picasso painted three intimate sleeping portraits of Marie-Thérèse, including Femme endormie. These works, while luminous, share thematic and visual kinship.

By contrast, Femme à la montre is a singular masterpiece. The emotional charge, the symbolic layering, and the formal execution all elevate it to iconic status.

Picasso would revisit the motif of the watch once again in 1936, the year he finally ended things with Olga and began emotionally detaching from Marie-Thérèse. In a haunting, ambiguous portrait from that year, a solemn figure gazes into a mirror, bridal crown askew, as a shadowy second woman hovers behind her. Whether it depicts Olga or Marie-Thérèse remains open to interpretation—but the underlying message is unmistakable: time corrodes passion, and even the most radiant muse cannot resist its slow unraveling.

Conclusion: Beyond the Hammer Price

In the end, the market value of an artwork—especially in the case of Picasso—is not determined by one factor alone. Historical context, emotional symbolism, size, provenance, rarity, and even the psychology of collecting all come into play. The difference between Femme endormie and Femme à la montre is a perfect case study in how auction estimates are anything but predictable. They reflect a web of nuance that links art, artist, and audience in an ever-shifting dance of desire, history, and time.